'Tis the season for predictions – that annual ritual where consultants dust off their crystal balls, analysts sharpen their PowerPoint arrows, and thought leaders compete to coin the next "Great Something." Before we join the parade of 2025 prognosticators, let's first look back at what we got right (and delightfully wrong) in 2024.
Last December we made some bold predictions about everything from CHRO musical chairs to AI's march through HR departments. When uncertainty is our most reliable companion, understanding both - our hits and misses - helps us create a more informed course forward.
So grab your favorite beverage and let’s get on our annual journey of reflection and foresight. This year, we give you a bonus prediction!
What We Got Right and Wrong with 2024 Predictions
Our 2024 predictions proved prescient in several areas:
CHRO Role Evolution: We correctly anticipated the shift toward CHROs with broader business acumen. The demand for data-literate HR leaders who can navigate AI implementation and financial challenges has indeed intensified. According to Accenture, there is plenty of evidence to support our prediction.
HR Metrics Transparency: While progress occurred, the movement toward transparency was slower than predicted. Companies remained cautious about sharing sensitive metrics, particularly during economic uncertainty. In addition, the required ESRS reporting was delayed till the end of June 2026, which eased pressure in the US. However, we saw more governance agencies take up the topic of human capital transparency including initiatives at the ISSB, SEC, etc.
Workplace Dynamics: The election year impact was even more significant than anticipated, full of workplace tensions and a marked increase in labor activism. The prediction about non-unionized workers gaining union-like benefits proved accurate, supported by a US Department of Labor report.
AI Integration: Our forecast about LLMs and AI assistants reshaping HR was spot-on, according to a McKinsey report. However, we underestimated the speed of adoption and overestimated organizations' readiness to govern these technologies. Yet, as this Forbes article argues, we need to move from viewing AI governance as a compliance burden to seeing it as a competitive differentiation.
GenAI Economic Impact: The prediction about AI-triggered workforce changes materialized, though with more emphasis on augmentation than replacement, as discussed in a Deloitte report.
2025 Predictions
Looking ahead to 2025, we anticipate six major trends:
The Corporate Bifurcation: Transparency vs Opacity
Prediction: Companies will increasingly polarize into two distinct camps: "dark" organizations that use deregulation to minimize disclosure and accountability, particularly around human capital programs; and "light" organizations that embrace transparency and strengthen their human-capital centric programs. This bifurcation will go beyond reporting practices to fundamental differences in how organizations view their role in society, their relationship with employees, and their approach to value creation. We have begun to see this with organizations with a specific customer base eschewing ESG, DEI, and climate initiatives. We predict this polarization will accelerate in 2025.
Impact: "Light" organizations will likely command premium positioning with talent, attracting workers seeking purpose-aligned work, transparent career development, and progressive values. "Dark" organizations may achieve short-term cost advantages but will face increasing challenges in talent attraction and retention, especially among younger workers. This distinction won’t end at talent as we believe that consumers will weigh in with their dollars – patronizing organizations that reflect their beliefs.
Action for Leaders: Communicate the connection between transparency and value creation for critical stakeholders – investors, customers, employees. Build strong governance frameworks and transparent practices to maintain advantage with talent. Demonstrate that investments in people DRIVE profits versus having a deleterious impact on profit performance.
Immigration-Driven Skills Crisis
Prediction: Restrictive immigration policies, as well as the deportation of 20 million people (of which 11 million are workers paying more than $96.7 Billion in taxes) will create severe talent shortages in tech, healthcare, and specialized industries. We anticipate that the government will restrict student visas as well.
Impact: In a tough labor market, where there are more jobs than people, and relatively low unemployment rates, as we are currently experiencing, restrictive immigration policies and deportation of workers will increase the overall cost of labor (more dollars chasing fewer employees), increase operational costs associated with managing human capital, dampen innovation because of less diversity in the workforce, and put pressure on existing workers having to work harder to keep up with the workload. In addition, there will be more need for overtime, which at first blush seems good for workers (especially if there is no taxation on overtime pay), however, Project 2025 calls for policies that make it harder for employees to qualify for overtime, so net-net, employees will actually experience higher taxes, and lowered protections.
Action for Leaders: Invest heavily in internal talent development and creative recruitment strategies. Accelerate initiatives focused on integrating AI/GenAI in jobs so that jobs can be redesigned for optimal productivity. Invest in training employees on how to use AI/GenAI in their work. According to Gallup 67% of employees are not enabled by their organization to use AI to augment their productivity.
Social “Safety Net” Carried by the Private Sector
Prediction: As called for in Project 2025 and other anticipated efficiency efforts, many governmental agencies and programs (like EEO, OSHA, NLRB, FTC, etc.) that are designed to protect workers and consumers alike will either be eliminated, curtailed, merged into other agencies, and/or stripped of their enforcement capabilities. This will leave workers and consumers unprotected. As with similar past situations (i.e., Trump’s last term), leading companies will step in to fill gaps left by reduced government oversight and social programs.
Impact: This may accelerate the trend toward more paternalistic organizational models, where companies take on greater responsibility for employee wellbeing beyond traditional employment benefits and perquisites. Companies that step forward with robust benefits, legal protections, support systems, and self-governance will likely see stronger talent attraction/retention and brand reputation benefits. We call on the Business Roundtable members, committed to stakeholder capitalism, step into the vacuum left by the federal government and provide, from the private sector, what was once guaranteed by the public sector.
Action for Leaders: Review the current benefits and protection programs, consider expanding legal services and advocacy support for employees. Strengthen Employee Resource Groups as channels for understanding worker needs. Position enhanced worker/consumer protections as a strategic differentiator. Organize and lobby for the restoration of agencies and laws that protect society at large.
From Gig to Corporate: ACA Changes Could Trigger Workforce Migration
Prediction: Access to labor will potentially increase because gig economy work will become less attractive or viable for many workers due to either repeal or significant changes to the ACA. Without access to independent healthcare coverage through ACA marketplaces, many gig workers might be forced to seek traditional employment arrangements.
Impact: Employers potentially have access to experienced, self-motivated talent. However, these workers will bring different expectations around flexibility and autonomy. This could bring another wave of return to distributed / hybrid / remote work.
Action for Leaders: Assess the talent acquisition strategies to capitalize on the potential influx of new talent. Enhance benefits packages to attract workers seeking coverage. Design flexible work arrangements that appeal to workers who expect autonomy. Consider creating internal "gig-style" project marketplaces to provide flexibility within traditional employment.
Workestration in Agentic Workplace: the New Hybrid
Prediction: Work is transforming as AI moves from a “tool" to “collaborator”, creating an “agentic workplace” defined as an environment where human workers actively collaborate with, delegate to, and orchestrate work alongside digital agents (AI systems that handle cognitive tasks) and robotic agents (physical automation systems) to create value through their complementary capabilities. Organizations will shift from viewing AI as a point solution to seeing it as a pervasive force that requires orchestration across human-digital-robotic workflows. This will demand new frameworks for managing hybrid teams, as AI agents increasingly take on autonomous decision-making roles. The challenge will shift from "how do we use AI" to "how do we optimize collaboration between human intelligence, artificial intelligence, and robotic systems" while maintaining appropriate governance and ethical standards.
Impact: HR will need new skills in AI governance and ethics, new systems to inventory and monitor AI models, and new frameworks for redesigning work itself.
Action for Leaders: Invest in HR upskilling in AI literacy, work design. Create systems to inventory and monitor AI models used across HR processes. Rethink job architectures and career paths to reflect AI-augmented work. Develop new frameworks for evaluating performance and productivity in hybrid human-AI work. Update compensation strategies to reflect the changing nature of value creation. Build capability in HR teams to redesign work and redistribute tasks between humans and AI. Help managers and employees adapt to AI-augmented work.
Workplace Culture Polarization
Prediction: Workplace culture will become increasingly polarized as societal divisions spill into corporate environments. Particularly contentious will be DEI initiatives, with some stakeholders pushing for acceleration while others advocate for scaling back. This tension will be amplified by political discourse, social media, and potential policy changes that could affect corporate DEI programs.
Impact: Organizations face heightened risk of internal conflict and external scrutiny over workplace values and practices. Employee relations will become more complex as workers expect companies to take stands on social issues while others prefer traditional business-focused approaches. This may lead to increased discrimination claims, challenges in team collaboration, and potential talent attraction/retention issues. ERGs may face new challenges in their role and mandate. Companies will need to navigate competing expectations from different stakeholder groups - employees, customers, investors, and regulators - while maintaining productive work environments.
Action for Leaders: Develop clear, legally-sound policies that balance inclusion with business objectives. Train managers in conflict resolution and handling sensitive conversations. Strengthen documentation and decision-making processes for people decisions. Create safe channels for employees to voice concerns without fear of retaliation. Build robust internal communications strategies for addressing sensitive topics. Develop crisis management plans for potential culture-related incidents
Business as a Stabilizing Force
With regulatory rollbacks and shrinking federal protections, and political and social tensions on the rise, the private sector holds a unique opportunity - and responsibility - to serve as a stabilizing force in uncertain times, and create environments where productive dialogue thrives, shared purpose prevails over division, and tangible support for workers and consumers fills the gaps left by reduced governmental oversight. Companies that lean into effective and purposeful leadership, demonstrating authentic care for their workforce and customers, and balance innovation with human needs will help preserve workers' faith in progress.
We’ve seen examples of this in the past - most recently under the last Trump administration:
Withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement in 2017 saw corporations like Google, Apple, and Walmart voluntarily commit to reducing their carbon footprints and transition to renewable energy sources. Over 3,000 US businesses joined the “We Are Still In” coalition, pledging to uphold the Paris Agreement goals independently of governmental policies.
Repeal of the FCC rules that required internet service providers (ISPs) to get explicit consent before sharing users’ private data saw tech companies like Apple and Google introduce privacy-focused features, such as encrypted messaging, allowing users to opt out of tracking.
The partial repeal of the Dodd-Frank Act reduced oversight of mid-sized banks and saw large banks like JPMorgan Chase and BofA voluntarily increase transparency around stress tests and capital reserves to maintain investor confidence.
The Federal delays in implementing mandatory GMO labeling saw companies like Whole Foods and Trader Joe’s institute labeling of their products to meet consumer demands for transparency.
Changes in laws protecting gig economy workers saw companies like Lyft and Uber introduce benefits programs to support drivers.
We anticipate (and hope) that the private sector will “save the day” and provide the protections entitled to workers. That they will recognize that what’s good for workers, is actually good for companies and society.
As the stewards of organizational culture and employee experience, the human capital function has the power to bridge divides, facilitate understanding, and ensure that technological advancement enhances rather than diminishes human potential. Our ability to balance compliance with compassion, innovation with inclusion, and efficiency with empathy will be critical in maintaining workforce trust and engagement.
As we look ahead at a challenging 2025 (and beyond), organizations that combine clear principles with pragmatism, and inform their decision-making with data and financial analytics. The key will be maintaining focus on what matters most: creating value, supporting human potential, and building trust - regardless of which predictions above prove accurate.
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