‘Tis the Season of Predictions: The Right (and Wrong) of 2025, and 2026 Predictions

Another year, another round of predictions. Some of what we predicted in late 2024 came to pass. Some took unexpected turns. A few made us look prescient. Others? Let's just say reality had other plans.

We've spent 2025 chronicling how humanity navigated previous technological disruptions, from Mesopotamian clay tablets to Ford's assembly lines. The patterns are eerily consistent: disruption, adaptation, new jobs, eventual integration. But as we move into territory where AI generates visions that humans execute, some historical playbooks may be tricky. 

So grab your beverage of choice and let's look at what we got right, what we got wrong, and what 2026 might have in store.

What We Got Right and Wrong with 2025 Predictions

The Corporate Bifurcation: Transparency vs. Opacity

We predicted companies would polarize into "dark" organizations minimizing disclosure and "light" organizations embracing transparency. This proved accurate, perhaps more dramatically than anticipated. Major companies including Meta, Amazon, Target, and McDonald's scaled back DEI initiatives following executive orders targeting such programs. The Conference Board reported that 68% of S&P 500 companies reduced use of "DEI" language in their 2025 filings. Meanwhile, Costco, Apple, and Delta publicly reaffirmed their commitments. The divide is real, the consequences are playing out, and talent is watching.

Workestration in Agentic Workplaces

We coined "workestration" to describe managing hybrid human-AI workflows. This prediction landed squarely. McKinsey reports that 88% of organizations now use AI in at least one function, and 62% are experimenting with AI agents. Gartner predicts that 40% of enterprise applications will integrate task-specific AI agents by the end of 2026, up from less than 5% at the start of 2025. Companies like Moderna even merged their HR and IT leadership, signaling that AI is not just a technical tool but a workforce-shaping force.

Workplace Culture Polarization

Unfortunately, we nailed this one. The politicization of workplace culture intensified beyond what we anticipated. DEI became a flashpoint, with 20% of companies scrapping programs entirely since the election, while others quietly rebranded "diversity" as "connectivity" or "inclusion." Employee Resource Groups remain largely intact but are being repositioned to appear more universally inclusive. The culture wars came to work, and HR found itself in the crossfire.

Where We Missed the Mark

We underestimated the speed of the AI governance gap. While 79% of companies are adopting AI agents, only 1% view their AI strategies as mature. The "experimentation" phase stretched longer than expected, with most organizations stuck in what McKinsey calls the "gen AI paradox": widespread adoption, minimal bottom-line impact.

We also didn't fully anticipate the rise of a new threat: synthetic candidates. More on that below.

2026 Predictions

1. The Authenticity Crisis: Trust Becomes Currency

Prediction: The proliferation of deepfake technology will fundamentally challenge how organizations verify candidates, employees, and communications, making demonstrable authenticity a critical competitive advantage. Gartner predicts 1 in 4 job candidates globally will be fake by 2028. We're already seeing early signs: Pindrop Security found over one-third of 300 candidate profiles for a single job posting were fraudulent. One startup founder reported 95% of resumes received were from North Korean engineers posing as Americans. The FBI documented deepfake scams funneling $88 million to weapons programs.

As we noted in our synthetic reality post: people correctly identify deepfakes only 49-50% of the time. Random chance. In this environment, organizations that can demonstrate authenticity, integrity in communications, and true human connection will command premium positioning with both talent and customers. Trust is becoming the scarcest resource.

Impact: HR teams will need verification protocols that go beyond traditional background checks. The entire remote hiring infrastructure, built on trust and efficiency, requires redesign. Paradoxically, this may accelerate return-to-office mandates for sensitive roles, not for productivity but for identity verification. Companies that rolled back transparency initiatives may find themselves at a trust disadvantage when candidates and customers can't tell what's real anymore. Meanwhile, organizations investing in "trust markers" (verified communications, transparent practices, authenticated announcements) will differentiate themselves in talent markets where skepticism is the default.

Action for Leaders: Implement multi-factor identity verification throughout hiring. Train recruiters on deepfake detection (asking candidates to wave hands in front of faces remains surprisingly effective). Invest in detection technologies and develop verification systems for internal and external communications. Consider how every policy and practice either builds or erodes trust in an increasingly synthetic world. Build trust infrastructure now, before you need it.

2. The Rise of the Generative Employee

Prediction: 2026 will be the year employees broadly discover AI as an ideation partner, not just an automation tool. The shift from "AI does my tasks" to "AI expands my thinking" will transform how work gets done across every function. Workers who learn to use generative AI for brainstorming, prototyping, scenario planning, and creative exploration will dramatically outperform those who view AI only as a productivity shortcut.

We're already seeing this in pockets. Designers use Midjourney to explore visual directions before committing to concepts. Strategists use Claude to stress-test business cases and surface blind spots. Product managers generate dozens of feature variations in minutes. Marketers A/B test campaign concepts at speeds previously impossible. The question is shifting from "can I do this?" to "how many versions can I explore?"

Impact: Job descriptions will evolve from "must have skills" to "must know how to leverage AI to amplify skills." The democratization of creative and analytical capabilities will flatten traditional expertise hierarchies. A junior analyst with strong AI collaboration skills may outperform a senior analyst who refuses to engage. Training programs will need to teach "how to think with AI" as a creative partner. Performance expectations will rise as the floor for quality and quantity of output increases. The employees who thrive will be those who treat AI as a thought partner for ideation, not just a tool for execution.

Action for Leaders: Develop AI literacy programs that go beyond tool training to teach "generative thinking" skills. Create safe environments for employees to experiment with AI-assisted ideation without judgment. Revise performance expectations to account for AI-augmented output potential. Identify "AI power users" in your organization and leverage them as internal champions. Celebrate creative uses of AI, not just efficiency gains. Remember: according to Gallup, 67% of employees are not enabled by their organizations to use AI productively. That's a massive untapped opportunity.

3. AI Agents Get Employee Records

Prediction: AI agents will increasingly be treated as formal workforce members, complete with access permissions, security credentials, and performance tracking. Microsoft is already issuing security IDs to AI agents. Korn Ferry reports that "HR vendors are already creating employee records for AI agents." By 2026, HR will need frameworks for onboarding, monitoring, and even "offboarding" AI agents alongside human employees.

Impact: Organizations will need new categories of workforce management. Questions that seem absurd today will become practical necessities: Who is responsible when an AI agent makes a mistake? How do you evaluate an AI agent's performance? What happens when an AI agent is "promoted" to handle more complex tasks, or "terminated" for underperformance? The line between tools and teammates will blur, creating unprecedented governance challenges.

Action for Leaders: Begin developing frameworks for AI agent lifecycle management. Create policies around AI agent access, authority levels, and oversight requirements. Establish clear accountability structures: every AI agent needs a human owner. Work with legal and compliance teams on liability frameworks. Start treating AI governance not as a technical problem but as a workforce management challenge.

4. The Great Inversion Accelerates

Prediction: We detailed this in our "Humans as Hands of AI" post, and 2026 will see this trend intensify. AI will increasingly originate the vision, strategy, and creative direction while humans execute, refine, and implement. Plastic surgeons report patients arriving with AI-generated images of their "perfect selves." McKinsey's Lilli analyzes market data and generates strategic recommendations. GitHub Copilot already writes 46% of code for developers using it.

Impact: Job roles will undergo a fundamental identity crisis. Professionals trained to be "thinkers" will become "executors." Architects, strategists, designers, and analysts may find their creative spark increasingly outsourced to algorithms. This has profound implications for training, compensation, and job satisfaction. The risk: a workforce that knows how to implement but has lost the capability for independent strategic thought.

Action for Leaders: Consciously design human-AI collaborations that preserve human agency and creative capability. Invest in training that develops uniquely human skills: judgment, ethics, emotional intelligence, strategic thinking. Audit job roles to ensure employees maintain creative and strategic engagement, not just execution tasks. Consider what Brian Eno does with generative music: design the systems rather than just operate them.

5. The HR-Technology Convergence

Prediction: Following Moderna's lead, more organizations will merge HR and IT leadership into unified roles focused on workforce-technology integration. Gartner reports that 64% of IT leaders predict a complete merger of HR and IT functions within five years. Fast Company predicts HR will transform into something led by a "Chief Productivity Officer" combining people and technology responsibilities.

Impact: The traditional CHRO role will evolve significantly. HR professionals who lack technology fluency will find themselves sidelined. Conversely, technologists who lack understanding of human dynamics will fail at implementation. The organizations that thrive will be those that develop leaders fluent in both domains.

Action for Leaders: Invest aggressively in technology literacy for HR teams. Develop joint governance structures between HR and IT for AI deployment. Consider organizational structures that integrate people and technology strategy. Create career pathways that bridge HR and IT expertise.

The bonus prediction: The Human Premium Returns

Prediction: As AI capabilities expand, demand will grow for demonstrably human skills, creativity, and connection. Companies will begin marketing "human-made" products and services. Roles requiring emotional intelligence, complex judgment, and genuine human interaction will command premium compensation.

Impact: A bifurcation will emerge: AI-augmented efficiency roles and human-premium experience roles. This will reshape compensation structures, career paths, and talent strategies. The historical parallel: just as artisanal craftwork gained premium value after industrial manufacturing, human-centered work will become a differentiator.

Action for Leaders: Identify which roles in your organization benefit from the "human premium." Develop training programs that enhance uniquely human capabilities. Consider how to market human-centered services as a differentiator. Build career paths that value human skills alongside technical capabilities.

Wild Card Section

Our 2025 review admitted we missed the BLS collapse and AI-washing phenomenon. Humility suggests we're blind to something equally significant for 2026.

Candidates for our blind spots:

• A major AI safety incident. We've had minor deepfake embarrassments and algorithmic bias lawsuits. We haven't had a catastrophic AI failure that kills people or crashes markets. When it happens, regulatory response will be swift and possibly overcorrected.

• Labor organizing resurgence. The Great Freeze, ghost promotions, and AI anxiety create conditions for collective action. Union interest among white-collar workers is rising but hasn't yet translated to major organizing wins. That could change.

• International talent arbitrage. If U.S. immigration restrictions persist and AI enables more remote work, companies may shift knowledge work offshore faster than expected. The "geography matters again" trend could reverse into "geography matters less than ever."

We'll revisit these next December. Place your bets.

What History Teaches Us

Our "We've Been Here Before" series documented how previous technological revolutions followed consistent patterns: disruption, adaptation, new roles, eventual integration. The agricultural revolution took millennia. The industrial revolution took generations. The digital revolution took decades. The AI revolution is measured in years.

What's different this time? Speed, certainly. But also something more fundamental: previous revolutions changed what we could do. This revolution may change what we are asked to do. When AI originates and humans execute, we're not just adding new tools. We're potentially inverting the relationship between humans and machines.

The organizations that thrived through the electrical revolution weren't those with the best generators. They were those that built comprehensive ecosystems: power generation, distribution networks, skilled workforce development, and regulatory frameworks. The same will be true for AI. Technology alone won't determine success. The human systems we build around it will.

Looking Forward

If 2025 was the year of AI experimentation, 2026 will be the year of AI reckoning. Organizations will face hard choices: commit to genuine transformation or accept incremental improvement. Embrace transparency or retreat into opacity. Preserve human agency or optimize for efficiency.

HR leaders sit at the center of these decisions. We're not just managing the workforce through transformation. We're shaping how organizations will work for decades to come.

The historical record offers both warning and hope. Warning: every revolution created disruption, displacement, and pain for those caught in transition. Hope: humanity has consistently adapted, often in ways no one predicted.

Our job is to ensure this adaptation serves human flourishing, not just organizational efficiency. The choices we make in 2026 will echo for generations.

As we wrote in our predictions last year: The private sector holds a unique opportunity to serve as a stabilizing force in uncertain times. That responsibility hasn't diminished. If anything, it's grown more urgent.

Here's to navigating 2026 with wisdom, humanity, and maybe a little humor. We're going to need all three.

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What predictions would you add? What did we miss? Let us know. We'll revisit this next December to see how we did.